2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – Selection Sunday Edition

See FULL BRACKET here:

NCAA basketball tournament bracket FINAL

 

1 Kansas Oregon Michigan State Villanova
2 Xavier Oklahoma Virginia North Carolina
3 Miami FL Texas A&M Utah West Virginia
4 Arizona Indiana Seton Hall Kentucky
5 St Joseph’s Duke Iowa State Purdue
6 Texas Maryland Baylor California
7 Connecticut Notre Dame Iowa Dayton
8 Wisconsin Butler VCU Cincinnati
9 Gonzaga Texas Tech Oregon State USC
10 Colorado St Bonaventure St Mary’s Providence
11 Monmouth / San Diego State Hawaii (Big West) Temple Wichita State / Hofstra
12 Northern Iowa (MVC) Little Rock (Sun Belt) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Chattanooga (SoCon)
13 Stony Brook (America East) Stephen F Austin (Southland) Fresno State (MWC) Yale (Ivy)
14 Buffalo (MAC) South Dakota State (SUM) Green Bay (HOR) Iona (MAAC)
15 Cal St Bakersfield (WAC) Weber State (Big Sky) Hampton (MEAC) Middle Tennessee (C-USA)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Holy Cross (NEC) UNC-Asheville (Big South) Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Southern (SWAC)

Last Four BYES:  Colorado, St Bonaventure, St Mary’s, Temple

Last Four IN:  San Diego State, Monmouth, Wichita State, Hofstra

First Four OUT:  Tulsa, Michigan, Syracuse, South Carolina

Next Four OUT:  Pittsburgh, Valparaiso, George Washington, Long Beach State

Bids by conference:  Big 12 (7), Pac 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Big East (5), Atlantic 10 (4), American (3), CAA (2), MAAC (2), MVC (2), MWC (2), SEC (2), WCC (2)

 

The common theme among the final teams in my bracket was rewarding teams who were exceptional in conference play.  St Bonaventure tied for the A-10 title; Temple won the AAC outright; St Mary’s the WCC; San Diego State the Mountain West; Wichita State the Missouri Valley and Monmouth the MAAC.

The final team in my bracket is Hofstra, which is probably not a commonly shared pick in most brackets.

In the non-conference schedule, Hofstra beat Florida State in the Paradise Jam and won at St Bonaventure (a 10 seed in my bracket).

More notably, Hofstra tied for the league title in the CAA, which has the 9th-highest conference RPI of all 32 leagues.  Generally, conferences rated that high get multiple teams in.  Also, just two of the CAAs 10 teams are below 160 in the RPI. Hofstra went 14-4 in the league, a very respectable accomplishment.  It lost in overtime to UNC Wilmington, the team it tied with for first place, in the CAA Tournament Final.

It is a resume fairly similar to that of the 2006 George Mason team, which earned one of the final at-large bids and turned it into a Final Four appearance.  It is also comparable to that of 2011 VCU, another Final Four team from the CAA (at the time) as an at-large.  We’ll see if the committee allows the chance for history to repeat.

 

 

2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – 54 Hours to Go!!

See FULL BRACKET here:

NCAA basketball tournament bracket 3-11.1

 

Changes from Thursday revolve more around changes on the seed line, as opposed to teams playing their way in our out.

No changes on the 1-3 lines.  On the 4 line, Duke remained a 4 despite its loss to Notre Dame.  However, it is now the lowest-ranked of the 4’s, meaning it is now matched up in the Kansas bracket.  Arizona slid up from a 5 to a 4 after getting past Colorado in its Pac-12 Quarterfinal.  Iowa State makes the corresponding drop to a 5 after a close loss to Oklahoma.  Baylor now joins ISU on the 5 line after beating Texas a second time.

It was a rough day for two Big Ten locks:  Iowa and Wisconsin.  Each team lost unexpectedly Thursday, and a result took a hit on the seed lines.  Iowa falls to a 7 for the time being after a loss to Illinois, and might have avoided falling further thanks in part to Wisconsin’s loss to Nebraska.

As for potential locks on Friday, the winner of Connecticut vs Cincinnati will become a lock; loser will be among the final five or six teams in (for now).  If Saint Bonaventure and VCU both win in the A-10 Tournament tonight, the winner of tomorrow’s game will be a lock.  Both are good bets to get in just with wins tonight.

At-Large locks and Automatic bids earned below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the fourth-ranked #1 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Michigan State
2 Oregon North Carolina Virginia Oklahoma
3 Miami FL Indiana West Virginia Utah
4 Maryland Arizona Duke Texas A&M
5 Baylor Iowa State Purdue Dayton
6 Kentucky Texas California Notre Dame
7 Providence Seton Hall St Joseph’s Iowa
8 USC Wisconsin Oregon State Butler
9 Cincinnati Gonzaga (WCC) Connecticut Colorado
10 Texas Tech St Mary’s San Diego State (MWC) St Bonaventure
11 Tulsa / Monmouth VCU (A-10) South Caroliina / Wichita State Temple (AAC)
12 Hawaii (Big West) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Chattanooga (SoCon) Northern Iowa (MVC)
13 Yale (Ivy) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Akron (MAC) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Iona (MAAC) Middle Tennessee (C-USA) South Dakota State (SUM)
15 New Mexico State (WAC) Green Bay (HOR) UNC-Asheville (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Holy Cross (NEC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) Hampton (MEAC) Texas Southern (SWAC)

Last Four BYES:  Colorado, St Mary’s, St Bonaventure, Texas Tech

Last Four IN:  Tulsa, Monmouth, Wichita State, South Carolina

First 4 OUT:  Hofstra, Syracuse, Michigan, Houston

Next 8 OUT:  Pittsburgh, George Washington, Valparaiso, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Florida, LSU, Ohio State

Eliminated from consideration:  Florida State, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Vanderbilt, Washington

 

See FULL BRACKET here:

NCAA basketball tournament bracket 3-10

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the fourth-ranked #1 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

Wednesday was a very good day for the Pac-12.  USC and Oregon State are now locks in my bracket after each won its first-round match-up.  Colorado, which also won its first-round match-up, against lowly Washington State, is all but a lock at this point.  Beating Arizona would seal it for sure.  Otherwise, the Buffs are OK as long as a bunch of lower-seeded teams from the power conferences (i.e. Virginia Tech, Marquette and LSU) don’t make lengthy runs in their conference tournaments.

Texas Tech, however, is now in a bit of trouble.  After losing to a 20-loss TCU team in the Big 12 Opening Round, the Red Raiders fell from an 8 to a 10 seed in my bracket.  Still in, but even more susceptible to the potential of a few teams sneaking in with big runs this weekend.

With two more teams now locks, the field is starting to take real shape.  All teams on the top 8 seed lines are locked up, along with 13 automatic bids, meaning 45 teams are now assured of being in the tourney.

At-Large locks and Automatic bids earned below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Michigan State
2 Oregon North Carolina Virginia Oklahoma
3 Miami FL Indiana West Virginia Utah
4 Texas A&M Iowa State Maryland Duke
5 Purdue Arizona Texas Dayton
6 Iowa Baylor California Kentucky
7 St Joseph’s Seton Hall Wisconsin Notre Dame
8 Providence USC Oregon State Butler
9 Gonzaga (WCC) Cincinnati Connecticut Colorado
10 Texas Tech St Mary’s San Diego State (MWC) St Bonaventure
11 Tulsa / Monmouth VCU (A-10) South Carolina / Wichita State Temple (AAC)
12 Hawaii (Big West) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Chattanooga (SoCon) Northern Iowa (MVC)
13 Yale (Ivy) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Akron (MAC) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Iona (MAAC) UAB (C-USA) South Dakota State (SUM)
15 New Mexico State (WAC) Green Bay (HOR) UNC-Asheville (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Holy Cross (NEC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) Hampton (MEAC) Texas Southern (SWAC)

Last Four BYES:  Colorado, St Mary’s, St Bonaventure, Texas Tech

Last Four IN:  Tulsa, Monmouth, Wichita State, South Carolina

First 4 OUT:  Hofstra, Syracuse, Michigan, Houston

Next 8 OUT:  Pittsburgh, George Washington, Virginia Tech, Marquette, Washington, Georgia Tech, LSU, Vanderbilt

 

 

 

 

See FULL BRACKET here:

NCAA basketball tournament bracket 3-9

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the fourth-ranked #1 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

Gonzaga erased any doubt about its place in the field by winning the WCC Championship game over St Mary’s.  As for the Gaels, they are still in the field as of now as one of the last four byes.  Depending on what the power-conference teams do in their tournaments, that somewhat-safe standing could change.

At-Large locks and Automatic bids earned below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Michigan State
2 Oregon North Carolina Virginia Oklahoma
3 Miami FL Indiana West Virginia Utah
4 Texas A&M Iowa State Maryland Duke
5 Iowa Purdue Arizona Dayton

6 Baylor Texas California Kentucky
7 St Joseph’s Seton Hall Wisconsin Notre Dame
8 Providence USC Texas Tech Butler
9 Oregon State Cincinnati Connecticut Gonzaga (WCC)
10 San Diego State (MWC) Colorado St Mary’s St Bonaventure
11 Monmouth / South Carolina VCU (A-10) Tulsa / Hofstra Temple (AAC)
12 Hawaii (Big West) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Chattanooga (SoCon) Northern Iowa (MVC)
13 Yale (Ivy) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Akron (MAC) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Iona (MAAC) UAB (C-USA) South Dakota State (SUM)
15 New Mexico State (WAC) Green Bay (HOR) UNC-Asheville (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Hampton (MEAC) Lehigh (Patriot)

Last 4 BYES:  Colorado, Oregon State, St Mary’s, St Bonaventure

Last 4 IN:  South Carolina, Tulsa, Hofstra, Monmouth

First 4 OUT:  Syracuse, Wichita State, Michigan, Houston

Next 8 OUT:  Pittsburgh, Valparaiso, Florida State, Marquette, LSU, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Florida

 

 

 

 

NCAA basketball tournament bracket 3-8

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the fourth-ranked #1 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

Michigan State moves up to the final #1 seed after Miami’s loss at Virginia Tech.  North Carolina slides back into a 2 seed after a huge win at Duke, avenging its loss at home to the Blue Devils a couple weeks prior.  UNC’s big win, combined with Virginia beating Louisville a second time, pushes Miami down to the first #3 seed (9th overall) for the time being.  The Hurricanes would most likely slide up to a 2 seed with a win over Virginia in the ACC Semifinals.

Four teams became locks in my projections, with wins over the weekend:  California, Notre Dame, Butler and Providence.  The latter two–which each finished at 10-8 in the Big East after wins Saturday afternoon–are slated to match up in the 4-5 game of the Big East Quarterfinals.  Therefore, a bad loss for either of them isn’t possible at this point, and thus solidifying both teams in the NCAA field.

Texas Tech is a near lock after beating Kansas State at home Saturday.  However, the Red Raiders must face last-place TCU on Wednesday in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.  A loss there would make things a bit hairy.

At-Large locks and Automatic bids earned below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Michigan State
2 Oregon North Carolina Virginia Oklahoma
3 Miami FL Indiana West Virginia Utah
4 Texas A&M Iowa State Maryland Duke
5 Iowa Purdue Arizona Dayton
6 Baylor Texas Seton Hall Kentucky
7 Providence California Wisconsin Notre Dame
8 USC Cincinnati St Joseph’s Butler
9 Syracuse Colorado Texas Tech Connecticut
10 San Diego State (MWC) Tulsa / St Bonaventure Oregon State St Mary’s
11 Monmouth / South Carolina VCU (A-10) Gonzaga (WCC) Temple (AAC)
12 Hawaii (Big West) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Chattanooga (SoCon) Northern Iowa (MVC)
13 Yale (Ivy) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Akron (MAC) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Iona (MAAC) UAB (C-USA) South Dakota State (SUM)
15 New Mexico State (WAC) Wright State (HOR) UNC-Asheville (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Hampton (MEAC) Wagner (NEC) Lehigh (Patriot)

Currently projecting Temple (AAC) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions from leagues with at-large worthy teams, despite not being at-large worthy themselves at this time.  These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team.  VCU (A-10) is also a projected automatic bid, and without it would be among last four IN as of now.

LAST FOUR BYES:  Colorado, Oregon State, St Mary’s, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN:  St Bonaventure, Tulsa, Monmouth, South Carolina (very last in)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN (order of closest to IN):   Michigan, Wichita State, Hofstra, Valparaiso, Houston, Florida State, George Washington, Marquette

 

2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – Updated March 7

NCAA basketball tournament bracket MM365

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the fourth-ranked #1 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

Michigan State moves up to the final #1 seed after Miami’s loss at Virginia Tech.  North Carolina slides back into a 2 seed after a huge win at Duke, avenging its loss at home to the Blue Devils a couple weeks prior.  UNC’s big win, combined with Virginia beating Louisville a second time, pushes Miami down to the first #3 seed (9th overall) for the time being.  The Hurricanes would most likely slide up to a 2 seed with a win over Virginia in the ACC Semifinals.

Four teams became locks in my projections, with wins over the weekend:  California, Notre Dame, Butler and Providence.  The latter two–which each finished at 10-8 in the Big East after wins Saturday afternoon–are slated to match up in the 4-5 game of the Big East Quarterfinals.  Therefore, a bad loss for either of them isn’t possible at this point, and thus solidifying both teams in the NCAA field.

Texas Tech is a near lock after beating Kansas State at home Saturday.  However, the Red Raiders must face last-place TCU on Wednesday in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.  A loss there would make things a bit hairy.

At-Large locks and Automatic bids earned below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Michigan State
2 Oregon North Carolina Virginia Oklahoma
3 Miami FL Indiana West Virginia Utah
4 Texas A&M Iowa State Maryland Duke
5 Iowa Purdue Arizona Dayton
6 Baylor Texas Seton Hall Kentucky
7 Providence California Wisconsin Notre Dame
8 USC Cincinnati St Joseph’s Butler
9 Syracuse Colorado Texas Tech Connecticut
10 VCU (A-10) St Bonaventure Oregon State San Diego State (MWC)
11 Tulsa / St Mary’s Gonzaga (WCC) South Carolina / Michigan Temple (AAC)
12 Monmouth (MAAC) Hofstra (CAA) Northern Iowa (MVC) Valparaiso (Horizon)
13 Hawaii (Big West) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Chattanooga (SoCon) Stony Brook (America East)
14 IPFW (Summit) UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC)
15 New Mexico State (Big West) Stephen F Austin (Southland) UNC-Asheville (Big South)  Weber State (Big Sky)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Hampton (MEAC) Wagner (NEC) Lehigh (Patriot)

Currently projecting Temple (AAC) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions from leagues with at-large worthy teams, despite not being at-large worthy themselves at this time.  These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team.

LAST FOUR BYES:  Colorado, Oregon State, St Bonaventure, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN:  St Mary’s, Tulsa, South Carolina, Michigan (very last in)

NEXT IN LINE (in order of closest to being IN):  Houston, Wichita State, Florida State, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Marquette, Georgia Tech, BYU, Evansville, Virginia Tech

 

2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – Updated Mar 4

NCAA basketball tournament bracket MM365

 

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the top-ranked #2 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

I currently have Miami as the final #1 seed due to a 9-2 mark vs the RPI Top 50, including an impressive 18-point win at Notre Dame Wednesday night, and a 14-2 mark vs the Top 100.  Comparatively, Virginia is 8-2 vs Top 50 but 11-5 vs Top 100 (Michigan State is 7-4 vs Top 50 and Oklahoma 8-5).  Oregon makes the 2 line with a staggering 17 wins vs top-100 teams, and just six against sub-100 teams.

North Carolina might seem an outrageous absence from the 1 or 2 line. However, the Tar Heels have just three Top 50 wins and 13 sub-100 wins, five of those against ACC teams.

Wisconsin is the latest team to lock up a bid after winning at Minnesota.   Avoiding an additional bad loss ensured the Badgers’ spot.  California would have been a lock if it had held on to beat Arizona in Tucson last night.  If the Bears get the job done at Arizona State this weekend they will become a lock heading into the Pac-12 Tournament.

At-Large locks below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

 

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Miami FL
2 Oregon Virginia Oklahoma Michigan State
3 North Carolina Indiana Utah West Virginia
4 Maryland Iowa State Duke Baylor
5 Texas A&M Arizona Purdue Iowa
6 Seton Hall Texas Dayton Kentucky
7 St Joseph’s Providence Wisconsin California
8 USC Notre Dame Texas Tech Butler
9 Syracuse Cincinnati Connecticut Colorado
10 Michigan Tulsa Gonzaga (WCC) VCU (A-10)
11 St Mary’s / South Carolina San Diego State (MWC) Wichita State (MVC) St Bonaventure / Houston
12 Temple (AAC) Valparaiso (Horizon) Monmouth (MAAC) Hawaii (Big West)
13 Chattanooga (SoCon) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Hofstra (CAA) Stony Brook (America East)
14 IPFW (Summit) UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC)
15 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Belmont (OVC) New Mexico State (WAC) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 FGCU (A-Sun) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Hampton (MEAC) / Wagner (NEC) Winthrop (Big South) Lehigh (Patriot)

North Florida (A-Sun) and Bucknell (Patriot) were eliminated from their respective conference tournaments Thursday night.  FGCU and Lehigh have replaced them as the highest-RPI team left in their conference tourney.

Currently projecting Temple (AAC) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions from leagues with at-large worthy teams, despite not being at-large worthy themselves at this time.  These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team.

LAST FOUR BYES:  Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan, Tulsa

LAST FOUR IN:  St Mary’s, St Bonaventure, Houston, South Carolina (very last in)

NEXT IN LINE (in order of closest to being IN):  Oregon State, George Washington, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Alabama

 

 

 

2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – Updated March 1

Link to bracket:

MM365 Bracket

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the top-ranked #2 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

I currently have Miami as the final #1 seed due to a 8-2 mark vs the RPI Top 50, and a 13-2 mark vs the Top 100.  Comparatively, Virginia is also 8-2 vs Top 50 but 11-5 vs Top 100.  Michigan State is 7-4 vs Top 50 and Oklahoma 8-5.  Oregon makes the 2 line with a staggering 16 wins vs top-100 teams, and just six against sub-100 teams.

North Carolina might seem an outrageous absence from the 1 or 2 line. However, the Tar Heels have just three Top 50 wins and 13 sub-100 wins, with five of those against ACC teams.

At-Large locks in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Miami FL

2 Oregon Virginia Oklahoma Michigan State

3 Maryland West Virginia North Carolina Utah
4 Duke Indiana Iowa State Baylor
5 Arizona Texas St Joseph’s Iowa
6 Dayton Purdue Seton Hall Texas A&M
7 Kentucky Cincinnati Wisconsin Texas Tech

8 Providence Notre Dame California Connecticut
9 Michigan Colorado South Carolina Butler
10 Syracuse GW / USC Gonzaga (WCC) Pittsburgh
11 Wichita State (MVC) St Mary’s / Alabama Temple (AAC) VCU (A-10)

12 Monmouth (MAAC) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) San Diego State (MWC) Hawaii (Big West)
13 Chattanooga (SoCon) Hofstra (CAA) Valparaiso (Horizon) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Belmont (OVC) UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC)
15 Weber State (Big Sky) Stephen F Austin (Southland) New Mexico State (WAC) IPFW (Summit)
16 Wagner (NEC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Hampton (MEAC) / Winthrop (Big South) North Florida (A-Sun) Bucknell (Patriot)

Currently projecting VCU (A-10) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions despite not being outright conference leaders at this time.  These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team.

2016 NCAA Tournament Projections: Updated Feb 26

Link to bracket:

NCAA basketball tournament bracket MM365

At-Large locks in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)
1 1 Kansas 2 Xavier 3 Oklahoma 4 Villanova
2 Maryland Miami FL Michigan State North Carolina
3 Virginia Oregon Duke West Virginia
4 Utah Iowa State Iowa Indiana
5 Kentucky Arizona St Joseph’s Baylor
6 Dayton Texas Texas A&M Purdue
7 Texas Tech Connecticut Seton Hall South Carolina
8 Providence Wisconsin Cincinnati Notre Dame
9 Michigan Syracuse California Colorado
10 Butler Marquette (Big East) Temple (AAC) USC / GW
11 Tulsa / Alabama San Diego State (MWC) Hawaii (Big West) Wichita State (MVC)
12 Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Hofstra (CAA) Saint Mary’s (WCC) VCU (A-10)
13 Chattanooga (SoCon) Valparaiso (Horizon) Stony Brook (America East) Monmouth (MAAC)
14 UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC) Belmont (OVC)
15 IPFW (Summit) New Mexico State (WAC) Montana (Big Sky) Stephen F Austin (Southland)
16 Wagner (NEC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Bucknell (Patriot) North Florida (A-Sun) Hampton (MEAC) / Winthrop (Big South)

First Four OUT:  Gonzaga, Florida, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt

 

Championship week often sees at least one team–which otherwise would not qualify–win a conference tournament in a league which has at least one at-large worthy team. Last year, Wyoming from the Mountain West was one such team. These teams are often referred to as “bid thieves”.  

Currently, I have two projected automatic which are would-be bid thieves:  VCU (A-10) and Marquette (Big East).  Whether these two end up winning their conference tournaments is entirely unknown, but it helps to give a reasonable look at the at-large pool given a couple bids are taken by unexpected conference tourney winners.

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections – Updated 2/23

accounts for all games played through Monday, Feb 22

*#1 seeds ranked overall 1-4, numbers next to each denote ranking

Seed East (Philadelphia) Midwest (Chicago) South (Louisville) West (Anaheim)
1 1 Villanova 2 Kansas 3 Xavier 4 Oklahoma
2 North Carolina Maryland Miami FL Michigan State
3 West Virginia Virginia Iowa Oregon
4 Arizona Utah Iowa State Duke
5 Baylor Texas A&M St Joseph’s Indiana
6 Kentucky Texas Purdue Dayton
7 Connecticut Providence South Carolina Texas Tech
8 Notre Dame Michigan California Cincinnati
9 Wisconsin Seton Hall Syracuse USC
10 Butler Colorado / Pittsburgh Temple (AAC) Alabama
11 Tulsa / Florida VCU (A-10) San Diego State (MWC) Wichita State (MVC)
12 Hawaii (Big West) Chattanooga (SoCon) Saint Mary’s (WCC) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)
13 Monmouth (MAAC) UAB (C-USA) Valparaiso (Horizon) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Belmont (OVC) UNC Wilmington (CAA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC)
15 Stephen F Austin (Southland) IPFW (Summit) New Mexico State (WAC) Montana (Big Sky)
16 Hampton (MEAC) / North Florida (A-Sun) Wagner (NEC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Bucknell (Patriot) Winthrop (Big South)