2016 NCAA Tournament Projections: Updated Feb 26

Link to bracket:

NCAA basketball tournament bracket MM365

At-Large locks in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)
1 1 Kansas 2 Xavier 3 Oklahoma 4 Villanova
2 Maryland Miami FL Michigan State North Carolina
3 Virginia Oregon Duke West Virginia
4 Utah Iowa State Iowa Indiana
5 Kentucky Arizona St Joseph’s Baylor
6 Dayton Texas Texas A&M Purdue
7 Texas Tech Connecticut Seton Hall South Carolina
8 Providence Wisconsin Cincinnati Notre Dame
9 Michigan Syracuse California Colorado
10 Butler Marquette (Big East) Temple (AAC) USC / GW
11 Tulsa / Alabama San Diego State (MWC) Hawaii (Big West) Wichita State (MVC)
12 Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Hofstra (CAA) Saint Mary’s (WCC) VCU (A-10)
13 Chattanooga (SoCon) Valparaiso (Horizon) Stony Brook (America East) Monmouth (MAAC)
14 UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC) Belmont (OVC)
15 IPFW (Summit) New Mexico State (WAC) Montana (Big Sky) Stephen F Austin (Southland)
16 Wagner (NEC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Bucknell (Patriot) North Florida (A-Sun) Hampton (MEAC) / Winthrop (Big South)

First Four OUT:  Gonzaga, Florida, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt

 

Championship week often sees at least one team–which otherwise would not qualify–win a conference tournament in a league which has at least one at-large worthy team. Last year, Wyoming from the Mountain West was one such team. These teams are often referred to as “bid thieves”.  

Currently, I have two projected automatic which are would-be bid thieves:  VCU (A-10) and Marquette (Big East).  Whether these two end up winning their conference tournaments is entirely unknown, but it helps to give a reasonable look at the at-large pool given a couple bids are taken by unexpected conference tourney winners.

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