2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – Updated March 1

Link to bracket:

MM365 Bracket

Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the top-ranked #2 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

I currently have Miami as the final #1 seed due to a 8-2 mark vs the RPI Top 50, and a 13-2 mark vs the Top 100.  Comparatively, Virginia is also 8-2 vs Top 50 but 11-5 vs Top 100.  Michigan State is 7-4 vs Top 50 and Oklahoma 8-5.  Oregon makes the 2 line with a staggering 16 wins vs top-100 teams, and just six against sub-100 teams.

North Carolina might seem an outrageous absence from the 1 or 2 line. However, the Tar Heels have just three Top 50 wins and 13 sub-100 wins, with five of those against ACC teams.

At-Large locks in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)

1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Miami FL

2 Oregon Virginia Oklahoma Michigan State

3 Maryland West Virginia North Carolina Utah
4 Duke Indiana Iowa State Baylor
5 Arizona Texas St Joseph’s Iowa
6 Dayton Purdue Seton Hall Texas A&M
7 Kentucky Cincinnati Wisconsin Texas Tech

8 Providence Notre Dame California Connecticut
9 Michigan Colorado South Carolina Butler
10 Syracuse GW / USC Gonzaga (WCC) Pittsburgh
11 Wichita State (MVC) St Mary’s / Alabama Temple (AAC) VCU (A-10)

12 Monmouth (MAAC) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) San Diego State (MWC) Hawaii (Big West)
13 Chattanooga (SoCon) Hofstra (CAA) Valparaiso (Horizon) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Belmont (OVC) UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC)
15 Weber State (Big Sky) Stephen F Austin (Southland) New Mexico State (WAC) IPFW (Summit)
16 Wagner (NEC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Hampton (MEAC) / Winthrop (Big South) North Florida (A-Sun) Bucknell (Patriot)

Currently projecting VCU (A-10) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions despite not being outright conference leaders at this time.  These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *