2016 NCAA Tournament Projections – Updated Mar 4

NCAA basketball tournament bracket MM365


Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the top-ranked #2 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.

I currently have Miami as the final #1 seed due to a 9-2 mark vs the RPI Top 50, including an impressive 18-point win at Notre Dame Wednesday night, and a 14-2 mark vs the Top 100.  Comparatively, Virginia is 8-2 vs Top 50 but 11-5 vs Top 100 (Michigan State is 7-4 vs Top 50 and Oklahoma 8-5).  Oregon makes the 2 line with a staggering 17 wins vs top-100 teams, and just six against sub-100 teams.

North Carolina might seem an outrageous absence from the 1 or 2 line. However, the Tar Heels have just three Top 50 wins and 13 sub-100 wins, five of those against ACC teams.

Wisconsin is the latest team to lock up a bid after winning at Minnesota.   Avoiding an additional bad loss ensured the Badgers’ spot.  California would have been a lock if it had held on to beat Arizona in Tucson last night.  If the Bears get the job done at Arizona State this weekend they will become a lock heading into the Pac-12 Tournament.

At-Large locks below in bold

(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)


1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Miami FL
2 Oregon Virginia Oklahoma Michigan State
3 North Carolina Indiana Utah West Virginia
4 Maryland Iowa State Duke Baylor
5 Texas A&M Arizona Purdue Iowa
6 Seton Hall Texas Dayton Kentucky
7 St Joseph’s Providence Wisconsin California
8 USC Notre Dame Texas Tech Butler
9 Syracuse Cincinnati Connecticut Colorado
10 Michigan Tulsa Gonzaga (WCC) VCU (A-10)
11 St Mary’s / South Carolina San Diego State (MWC) Wichita State (MVC) St Bonaventure / Houston
12 Temple (AAC) Valparaiso (Horizon) Monmouth (MAAC) Hawaii (Big West)
13 Chattanooga (SoCon) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Hofstra (CAA) Stony Brook (America East)
14 IPFW (Summit) UAB (C-USA) Yale (Ivy) Akron (MAC)
15 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Belmont (OVC) New Mexico State (WAC) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 FGCU (A-Sun) / Texas Southern (SWAC) Hampton (MEAC) / Wagner (NEC) Winthrop (Big South) Lehigh (Patriot)

North Florida (A-Sun) and Bucknell (Patriot) were eliminated from their respective conference tournaments Thursday night.  FGCU and Lehigh have replaced them as the highest-RPI team left in their conference tourney.

Currently projecting Temple (AAC) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions from leagues with at-large worthy teams, despite not being at-large worthy themselves at this time.  These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team.

LAST FOUR BYES:  Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan, Tulsa

LAST FOUR IN:  St Mary’s, St Bonaventure, Houston, South Carolina (very last in)

NEXT IN LINE (in order of closest to being IN):  Oregon State, George Washington, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Alabama




Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *