Teams on the 1 and 2 seeds lines listed according to S-curve, so Michigan State would be the fourth-ranked #1 seed, and Oregon the fourth #2.
Michigan State moves up to the final #1 seed after Miami’s loss at Virginia Tech. North Carolina slides back into a 2 seed after a huge win at Duke, avenging its loss at home to the Blue Devils a couple weeks prior. UNC’s big win, combined with Virginia beating Louisville a second time, pushes Miami down to the first #3 seed (9th overall) for the time being. The Hurricanes would most likely slide up to a 2 seed with a win over Virginia in the ACC Semifinals.
Four teams became locks in my projections, with wins over the weekend: California, Notre Dame, Butler and Providence. The latter two–which each finished at 10-8 in the Big East after wins Saturday afternoon–are slated to match up in the 4-5 game of the Big East Quarterfinals. Therefore, a bad loss for either of them isn’t possible at this point, and thus solidifying both teams in the NCAA field.
Texas Tech is a near lock after beating Kansas State at home Saturday. However, the Red Raiders must face last-place TCU on Wednesday in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. A loss there would make things a bit hairy.
At-Large locks and Automatic bids earned below in bold
(Teams projecting as Automatic bids are listed with conference in parentheses)
1 Kansas Villanova Xavier Michigan State
2 Oregon North Carolina Virginia Oklahoma
3 Miami FL Indiana West Virginia Utah
4 Texas A&M Iowa State Maryland Duke
5 Iowa Purdue Arizona Dayton
6 Baylor Texas Seton Hall Kentucky
7 Providence California Wisconsin Notre Dame
8 USC Cincinnati St Joseph’s Butler
9 Syracuse Colorado Texas Tech Connecticut
10 San Diego State (MWC) Tulsa / St Bonaventure Oregon State St Mary’s
11 Monmouth / South Carolina VCU (A-10) Gonzaga (WCC) Temple (AAC)
12 Hawaii (Big West) UNC-Wilmington (CAA) Chattanooga (SoCon) Northern Iowa (MVC)
13 Yale (Ivy) Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt) Akron (MAC) Stony Brook (America East)
14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Iona (MAAC) UAB (C-USA) South Dakota State (SUM)
15 New Mexico State (WAC) Wright State (HOR) UNC-Asheville (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky)
16 Austin Peay (OVC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) FGCU (A-Sun) / Hampton (MEAC) Wagner (NEC) Lehigh (Patriot)
Currently projecting Temple (AAC) and Gonzaga (WCC) as conference champions from leagues with at-large worthy teams, despite not being at-large worthy themselves at this time. These two would potentially steal a bid from another at-large-worthy team. VCU (A-10) is also a projected automatic bid, and without it would be among last four IN as of now.
LAST FOUR BYES: Colorado, Oregon State, St Mary’s, Syracuse
LAST FOUR IN: St Bonaventure, Tulsa, Monmouth, South Carolina (very last in)
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN (order of closest to IN): Michigan, Wichita State, Hofstra, Valparaiso, Houston, Florida State, George Washington, Marquette